Topic awaiting preservation: North Korea Ups the ante

http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/03/nkorea.intercept/index.html

Oh well, looks like things are heating up over the seas of japan....

Not surprising. This fits the mindset of the North Korean leadership perfectly. It will be interesting to see how both sides (not to mention third parties) react to this.

As for the DPRK "upping the ante" or this being a sign that "Pyongyang is taking 'bigger and bigger risks,'" well, I'm not too sure about that. In my eyes, this is a logical progression of events and represents the same thing the DPRK has been doing for the past fifty years. And they have done far worse in the past.

yup i agree but this is the first intercept in decades, and this was in international waters.

I find it...well, concerning. It doesn't matter how well 'planned' such things may be...there is always the chance of something going wrong...as the chinese found out, colliding with that one plane.

If something like that should happen with tensions running high...things could rapidly get out of control...


WebShaman

That is a good point, WS, and the problem inherent in this sort of brinksmanship. Let's just pray that nobody does anything stupid.

quote:

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Let's just pray that nobody does anything stupid.

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Never a bet that I'm willing to take

It's my personal belief that this whole mess, couldve been avoided. I think North Korea was out to prove that they are now a 'world power.' I think the government was trying to push limits as far as they can, and I think they feel safe because of their newfound nuclear capabilities. I think they are getting cocky, and it will, in the end be their downfall. Intercepting a U.S. survaliance aircraft in international waters. So sorry Suho, somone already has done somthing, incredibly stupid. *points at north korea*, they are looking to antagonize us. And, I think Bush is foolish enough to fall for it.

I'm going to the moon, I cant stand it here anymore.

[This message has been edited by xRuleith (edited 03-04-2003).]

NEWS ALERT U.S. deploying 24 long-range bombers to Pacific as a deterrent to North Korea to take advantage of Iraqi situation, officials say. Details soon.
check CNN.com

details just released

[This message has been edited by tomeaglescz (edited 03-04-2003).]

xRuleith: I think you misunderstand the North Korean mentality. They are not out to prove they are a new world power, and they are not getting cocky. Kim's sole goal is to stay in power, and he will do whatever he thinks is necessary to accomplish that goal. I don't think North Korea really wants a war with the US, but they will try to push things to make the US look like the bad guy--even if only to their own people (it should be apparent that the DPRK cares little for international sentiment).

They are also currently trying to play two allies against each other, and so far they are succeeding. South Korean President No has repeatedly said that war must be avoided at all costs, and you can bet North Korea is encouraging this stance. You can also bet that, if they thought they could get away with it, they would stab South Korea in the back quicker than you can say "kimchi." But they can't do that, because that would mean a united US-ROK front, and that's not what they want. They feed in confusion and disorder among their enemies (yes, South Korea is the enemy of North Korea, no matter what you may have heard--the DPRK term for the ROK is, in fact, "primary enemy").

None of this means that North Korea wants to start a war with the US. Kim is engaging in brinksmanship, but I'm not sure if he realizes how precarious his position is. Either that or he really is mad, in which case we're all going to e screwed here.

You're right, stupid things have been done already, but I was specifically referring to something stupid that would start a war--you know, the spark in the powder keg.

The big news here on this front is that Bush directly mentioned for the first time the possibility of using military force in North Korea, and that North Korea has withdrawn from negotiations with the US and is claiming that all this is the US' fault. I don't know whether to laugh or vomit.

Suho, have you ever come across this site before?
http://www.chosunjournal.com/

It is quite a wealth of information about the Korean situation. I've had a link in my bookmarks to a sub page of this site but never went to the homepage before and I had no idea what it was.

Suho, it was really interesting to have a Korean point of view on the situation, away from the habit of medias to 'partially saying the truth, partially omitting important things'.

However, I have a question to ask you. How do you think Koreans (North and South) would react if the USA intended to attack North Corea in a non legal war, like in Iraq ?

Bugs: I have seen the site before. While well meaning, it is a very conservative (read: "hard-line") site, so take what they tell you with a grain of salt.

MS: That's a good question (not to mention a loaded one ;-). The quick answer here is that no one wants war on the Korean peninsula, which should be pretty obvious.

As to how Koreans would react if the US decided to take military action against North Korea, I imagine most Koreans would be pissed/frightened/shocked etc. (yes, I said shocked--most South Koreans still don't feel a sense of urgency about the situation). What's really important, though, is how the governments of North and South Korea will react.

ROK President No Mu-hyeon has repeatedly said that war must be avoided "at all costs." While I understand the sentiment, I find this disturbing because it foreshadows future difficulties in the ROK-US alliance. If it does come to the point that the US is going to take military action against the DPRK, No will have to either 1) oppose the US politically and refuse to help, or 2) flip-flop on his rhetoric, put his tail between his legs, and run along after the US. Both of these eventualities would mean political chaos in South Korea. I think No's strategy is to try to discourage the US from using force (the US doesn't want political chaos in South Korea any more than South Korea does), but I'm worried about what might happen if push comes to shove.

As for how North Korea will react, well, that's pretty much all speculation. I'm pretty sure that the DPRK would like to avoid war if at all possible, but to be honest with you I'm not really sure what they will do if the US threatens military action. My opinion is that caving in to US pressure would be the least likely result. On the positive side (for me, at least), the DPRK might be reluctant to attack US forces in South Korea, as they would run the risk of alienating the only true ally they may ever have in this world. This could mean a first strike against US forces elsewhere in Asia, but I think that they will try to avoid that if possible.

No one wants war on the Korean peninsula (I don't think even Bush wants war on the Korean peninsula, to be honet with you). Does that mean that there won't be war? Man, I wish things always worked out that way, but they don't, Last night my wife asked me if I registered with the US Embassy yet. I haven't, which is kind of strange. Then again, it's not--for me registering with the embassy would be admitting that things have gone too far. It would be like giving up on peace. That probably doesn't make sense to anyone but me, but that's OK. (Clarification: the reason I would register with the embassy is so they could reach me quickly in case of a crisis--like war.)

Here's one more thing. Not sure if it's related or not, but it's a basic fact of the Korean situation that might make things a bit clearer. There are only two nations on the face of this earth that want North and South Korea reunited. Whatever the US may say, they certainly don't want to see a reunited Korea--this would remove their primary premise for having troops on the Korean peninsula. Granted, Korean leaders have said they would welcome a continued US presence on the peninsula even after unification, but what do you expect them to say? If Korea is reunited, the case for the withdrawal of US troops will grow that much stronger, and that is not something the US wants. You can be sure China (or Russia, for that matter) wouldn't be too happy about it either--they don't want to see anybody in Asia getting any stronger. So, when it comes down to it, the "Korean situation" can only be solved by two nations: North and South Korea. Anything that any other nation does is just a temporary measure.

Thanks for sharing a bit of your time answering me Suho It clarified a lot what I heard on Korea.