my backyard exactly one year go:
this is what i see when i look out of the window these days: (no joke)
dont get me wrong. we already had a few winters without any snow...but January with 11° Celsius (51.8 Fahrenheit) is something we never had before. and 2007 is expected to become the warmest year since the beginning of recording the earths climate. I hear the birds chirping when I wake up. I look out of the window, I see growing flowers... it frightens me.
do you care about the greenhouse effect and global warming? what are your thoughts?
Just a note: it's extremely important to differentiate between temporary fluctuation and true global climate change.
What you are talking about, although it is extreme, is a major, temporary fluctuation. It was just a few years ago we had the coldest january on record. You may or may not recall, at that time you had widespread ridicule of global warming - afterall, it was cold outside
One newspaper I recall in particular had a huge full oage photo of a snow bound city street, with huge letters exclaiming "Global Warming?????"
The true effects of global warming are important, but they are thrown into a less important light when they are confused with issues like you are posting.
The impact that is frightening relates to the slow steady rise in overall gobal temperature averages, which we count by the fraction of a degree at a time, over long periods of time.
Right now, the current global temperature average is about 1 degree warmer than 100 years ago. Significant, yes, but it does not make the difference between you having snow last year, and spring weather now.
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-10-2007 09:52
However, DL, I must second Mas here - I am in Germany, and we are having constant temperatures over 10 degrees Celsius in a time when it is normally well under 0 (re : freezing). There is nothing like this on record - and this has been a constant thing this winter...ha, a joke that! Call it a looooong Autumn.
We have not had any snow here yet (very unusual) and it has only gone below 0 degrees celsius twice the whole winter.
We even had temperatures of 16 degrees celsius and higher! And that in January!
I think that is cause for alarm.
Should such a trend be here to stay (and all meteorologists are saying that it is), the threat of Malaria (for example) here in Germany is becoming a real one. And that is no "one time" thing - mild winters will prevent the dying off of the Malaria mosquito (which is temperature sensitive), which in turn will lead to it surviving. There was quite the fascinating documentary here in Germany on this topic recently.
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
DL-44: I am aware of this differentiation, but imho the one thing causes the other. just have a look at this graph. (from wikipedia)
you know, people are always talking about long time effects. I wonder when will we get to see these effects? If you ask me, we pretty much do already. Have a look at the past years. climate has been going crazy as it had never before. in the past winter, we had more snow than ever before here in austria. from the most snowy winter to the hottest winter in history...in 1 year! this is crazy, isnt it? and when I look at all these tsunamis and other major climate catastrophes, I'm really starting to worry about global warming.
and hey, even if this is just a temporary fluctuation, it will pretty much speed up things we have to worry about. lots of sea ice will melt down this year. probably more than ever before. thats what meteorologists predict.
This is a subject close to my heart. Alas, I am only online for a few hours a month these days so cannot contribute as much as I'd like.
Aaaannnyyyyhow
I have not checked the integrity of this particular site, but I know the sources they use to collate the graphs of climate change are from sound sources. As you can see there have been four major Ice Ages in this period covering the past 425,000 years.
From: Rochester, New York, USA Insane since: May 2000
posted 01-10-2007 14:37
Based on the last graph on that page you linked it looks like we are on the downward slope back towards a much colder period. It also appears that we can expect many large variations in temperature, and that the change over the last hundred years is hardly significant when viewed in respect to this larger scale.
Next, there is evidence that humans are directly affecting the temperature on this planet through the release of green house gas. How much of an effect is disputed, and models show anywhere from near 0 influence to catastrophic influence that will destroy the planet in less that 50 years.
What tends to happen is people look at the worst case data and then draw up plans of action based on this.
Most of the action plans involve a group of upper middle class hippies marching around and yelling about the evils of capitalism and the values of hugging a tree, and how we need to stop all wars, and wearing fur coats and eating meat is wrong.
After all the marching, chanting, dancing and drum playing is done, and we step back into reality everything becomes a little simpler.
We are not going to stop burning fossil fuel until it is gone. It is far too accessible a resource to make use of. Even if highly developed societies stop using it, developing counties will continue to make use of it to provide their energy needs.
Improvements towards conservation and greener living will happen in industry as it becomes economically advantageous to do so.
Personal conservation will occur as it becomes more cost effective and real differences can be seen.
There is no overnight cure for the human condition.
At the same time, when you look at known human history, in my society, people are now living longer, with more luxury goods. They have a good deal of time to spent on Self-Transcendence. It is because all of our other needs are met by our societies that we even have time to worry about this issue.
In the overall scheme of things you would get better results out of worrying about safer driving habits than about global warming. You will save more lives that way.
The earth is not going to die. It has been in ways that make our climate look like a paradise. We do not suffer from constantly erupting super volcanoes, or from continent spanning electrical storms. Tornadoes and hurricanes are not daily occurances in all parts of the world. Constant earth quakes and tidal waves are not a problem on all coasts.
Yes terrible things happen all the time, but throughout human history we have had to deal with and fight these things.
Yes make a personal effort towards improvement. Yes try and invent alternative cleaner more efficient energy sources. Yes work towards reducing pollutants.
These are all goods things. But do not be an alarmist, looking for the world to end tomorrow because of the evils that humans are inflicting upon this planet. Because that is not the case. At one point and time this planet was a floating ball of magma, with that in mind what we have right now looks pretty good.
DL-44: I am aware of this differentiation, but imho the one thing causes the other. just have a look at this graph.
The graph shows you pretty much what I said in my post
Yes, it looks very dramatic graphically presented there, but the info is the same
quote: mas said:
in the past winter, we had more snow than ever before here in austria. from the most snowy winter to the hottest winter in history...in 1 year! this is crazy, isnt it?
No - not really. That's the way things work.
Again, I must reiterate: what you are talking about here is *not* global warming. Global warming is a real and important issue. Confusing it with things such as the temerpature fluctuations caused by 'el nino' and the like is a very good way of making sure the real issue gets ignored completely.
I'm all for talking about the global warming issue - in fact I started a thread a while back on it - but lets make sure we get the issues straight, and don't get worked up over global warming becuase of something that is essentially unrelated.
so you mean all these 'el nino' fluctuations are not because of global warming? i think they are, and this is why i -as you call it- confuse it with such things.
wikipedia: While ENSO is a global and natural part of the Earth's climate, whether its intensity or frequency may change as a result of global warming is an important concern
its an important concern. to simply say that this is *not* global warming is imho a bit daring.
we had tons of fluctiations in the past years. but for the first time in history we are leaving natural ranges...
i still do think that the climate is going crazy and that this is not just the way things work. the amount of natural disastres has tremendously increased in the past years. also, the temperature has increased quite much in the past years. the amount of greenhouses gases in our atmosphere hasnt ever been as high as it is today...i personally dont think that these are just bad coincidences...
but DL-44, i dont want to start a brawl here. could you just explain to me which issues are 'essentially related' to global warming if its not the melting of sea ice or the crazyness of our current climate which beats one record after the other (be it the amount of catastrophes, methane concentrations in the air, cold temperatures, high temperatures...) etc. ?
Look, all I'm saying is that the kind of short term temperature issues we are experiencing at the moment have occurred for as long as we've recorded temperatures.
The core issues both more important and less blatant.
Just remember how most people skeptical of global warming reacted when there were record low temperatures over the alst couple of winters.
Relate that to your reactions to the record highs....
quote:Look, all I'm saying is that the kind of short term temperature issues we are experiencing at the moment have occurred for as long as we've recorded temperatures.
once again...YES they have occured, but NEVER BEFORE to such an extreme extent
While no peer-reviewed scientific articles doubt the presence of the global warming phenomenon and it's intricate tie to human activity, we humans still tend to think of global warming as a theory.
Here in Denver, we've had 2 blizzards in the past month. We're looking at an ice storm tomorrow, something almost never recorded in this area. I didn't really know how to respond to the icon I saw on my weather report, so foreign it was. We've had hurricanes across our coasts, record high temperatures during Summer, the hottest year ever on record (remember, the last 10 years are all at the top of the 'hottest year ever' list). The question is not 'Are we changing the environment,' but instead, 'Why haven't we stopped?' or perhaps 'How long before our planet becomes uninhabitable for us?'
This stuff really should matter to everyone. That it doesn't makes me weep.
50 years. 100 years. 200 years. Eventually, we're gonna lose in the Humans vs. Planet Earth battle--the planet is unimaginably larger than we are. We'll not destroy the planet, but we sure can destroy it for ourselves.
Belch more CO2 into the air. Continue melting our ice caps (how many more years before those melt enough to remove Florida from our maps?).
quote: reisio said:
Whether it's natural or our fault, I care - it affects so much.
Why can't it be both? If it's cyclic, surely it was never meant to be this extreme.
quote:YES they have occured, but NEVER BEFORE to such an extreme extent
Maybe I'm reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like they indeed have. From 1860 to about 1910, the very same short-term fluctuations occur, and with the same intensity, despite the fact the overall upward trend has yet to begin. If one were directly related to the other, those blue dots would be much flatter (much closer to the red line) before the turn of the century.
I believe that supports DL's point. Major short-term fluctuations have always occurred. That's just the unpredictability of weather.
I prefer to attribute all this winter madness to global warming ? I feel more content placing the blame on our species ? blame it for all the weird weather related shit that?s been going down.
Why point the finger at man rather than try to explain it by "cyclical fluctuations"? Because man is an incorrigible polluter of the worst kind ? and that?s an irrefutable fact.
Man is systematically destroying this planet?s varied ecosystems - hell, that didn't start this winter, did it?
Sending species after species to hell in the process ? so if the concept of global warming engendered by man?s pollution (ozone destruction, greenhouse effect, and whatever the flavour of the week is) helps to sensitize the general population that we?ve got some heavy duty problems in our relationship with Mother Earth..so be it?.maybe it will turn a few hyper-sedentary wii/ps3 playing couch potatoes into environmental activists?.and that can?t be bad, can it?
All I know for sure is that polar bears are dying, geese are overstaying their welcome, and if this continues my neck of the woods in the great white north will be the next florida.
I have to agree with a lot of what WarMage stated. Some things to keep in mind: About a thousand years ago, the climate was warm enough in the northern hemisphere for the Norsemen to grow crops on Greenland. It's why there are ruins of settlements there. This is the very island that people are freaking out about retreating glaciers. Four hundred years after they were growing crops in Greenland, Europe went through the Little Ice Age. This was some of the coldest weather (based on glacial records) since the last ice age.
Do we know exactly what day to day and seasonal fluctuations there were? No, because we don't have daily historical accurate temperature records going back that far. I'd be willing to bet that during the warm up a thousand years ago, we'd have seen a graph very similar to the one posted above. The fact of the matter is we only have about 150 years of accurate temperature measurements. And even fewer years yet of widespread global measurements. Anyone who thinks that 150 years out of 4.5 billion years of history on this planet is enough to draw sound scientific conclusions is nuts in my opinion.
Over the last 40 years, the number of recorded tornadoes across the united states has increased. Is this because of global warming, or is it simply because we have better communication, are living in more rural areas where tornadoes spawn and have better technology to detect them? The same goes for hurricanes. We are poking and prodding and inspecting and measuring this planet in ways that have never been done before. We are collecting so much data we don't know what to do with it all.
Before I get reamed here, I just have this to add. Rather than focus on solving this "problem" of global warming - something which we may have zero control over - why not focus on improving air quality for the sake of our health? Splitting hairs? Maybe. But realistically - humankind is selfish - show them how an action immediately benefits them, and you are more likely to get results. Telling people they need to buy expensive hybrids and install solar panels on their homes because they won't be able to grow crops in 50 years if they don't means absolutely nothing. I like clean air. I like the idea of being able to swim in clean water. The climate is going to change, whether we like it or not. I would rather focus my energy on something I can change, rather than be so arrogant as to think I can change the weather.
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-11-2007 10:32
They HAVEN'T happened before here in Germany!!!
Since recorded records, and even going back into what we can read from the ice records, Germany has never had such a succession of warm Winters as now - and this winter is the warmest on record.
I started actually noticing a change in the Winters here around 6 years ago. That is when the snowfall almost stopped. It has progressed from there.
Also, the ice in the Artic is melting at a staggering pace, which directly affects things here. Ice mass tends to cool the air, and normally those cold air masses come down from the North and that is what brought the freezing temperatures. We have not had that yet. Instead, we are getting warm air blown up from the south Atlantic. That, combined with the normal influence of the Gulf Strom, is keeping Germany unusually warm.
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
Also, the ice in the Artic is melting at a staggering pace, which directly affects things here. Ice mass tends to cool the air, and normally those cold air masses come down from the North and that is what brought the freezing temperatures. We have not had that yet. Instead, we are getting warm air blown up from the south Atlantic. That, combined with the normal influence of the Gulf Strom, is keeping Germany unusually warm.
There is indeed a good chance that this could be the real "problem", i.e. lead to the climate change we are talking about nowadays. But unlike what most people think, the effect of"global warming" will not result into warmer climates, but indeed colder.
Because the melting ice cools down the Gulf Stream, which will no longer warm up our coast as usual. We are only talking about a few years so I've heard...
On the other hand I have to say I do agree with DL-44 a lot, because what we can observe now does not mean much over a long period of time. There is a pollution problem nowadays, which we should tackle; as far as global warming is concerned, I feel we still need more information to understand what could be its outcome. As far as I'm concerned, I can only observe that this kind of fluctuations have always been happening. It would not be our first Ice Age, or our last one.
[edit]Now just a simple thought, which might sound slightly daft, but perhaps not that much: what if the "global warming" was simply and solely resulting from 7-8 billion people and God knows how many animals, and their wastes? Yes we do pollute our planet with non-environment friendly crap, yes we do consume energy and water in an atrociously selfish way, but what if this was only part of the problem? What if we weren't living this way? Would the planet's temperature stay even? Would there be no global warming and resulting ice ages? I very much doubt so. This is only a cycle, which we might be accelerating, but if it means for the current species, including humans, to go through a natural selection, I'm all for it.[/edit]
I started actually noticing a change in the Winters here around 6 years ago. That is when the snowfall almost stopped. It has progressed from there.
quote: Mas said:
in the past winter, we had more snow than ever before here in austria. from the most snowy winter to the hottest winter in history...in 1 year!
Well....which is it?
I'm sorry to repeat myself, but I must: how warm this winter is, or how cold that winter was, generally speaking has nothing to do with global warming.
AGAIN: I AM NOT SAYING ANYTHING ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING NOT BEING A REALITY.
Just that this particular winter's temperatures are irrelevent to the issue of global warming.
Remember last year's hurricane season in the US? And how everyone freaked out about the fact that hurricanes were just going to spiral out of control (haha) from there on out, wiping out the planet?
Pat Roberts even filled us in on how god told him it was gonna happen.
yeah.....
Read history books. They are full of stories of freak cold snaps and freak warm periods; drought and flood; storm and serenity. Across the globe. Throughout recorded history.
~shrug~
As to the original question of the post: Yes. I care. Enough to make sure that my feelings on the subject are not kneejerk reactionary sentiments.
The graph on the bottom of the page Tao posted, if accurate (no time to do a background check on the organization who did the study or look for other sources, but I will trust his judgement for the sake of this post), is a very good indicator of what is happening. A nice long-term view into the history of the planet.
If I am reading the data correctly it seems to me the Earth goes through a rapid spike in temperature every 100-150k years where, for a short period of time, it climbs well above average. It then peaks out, and begins to fall almost as rapidly. We also have small peaks in between, sub cycles I guess. Kind of miniature upheavals which mirror the larger, more critical periods of change.
I think from this I would have to conclude that perhaps the current global temperature fluctuation is a side-effect of a much larger change happening. Almost looks like global warming is the prelude to very very long winter. It would also seem that while our actions may be increasing the temperature, perhaps causing us to reach the peaking period faster, that it is inevitable.
This would also explain why the Bush family has purchased property in Paruguay.
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-12-2007 10:03
First of all, DL, I am not in Austria. I am nowhere NEAR Austria. Get out a map and take a look. I am located on the North Sea, in Northern Germany. Austria is a loooooooong way away from here, and between where I am and Austria is a number of geographical obstacles.
Second, this region, being that it is directly on the North Sea coast, is normally subjected to the cold air masses that come down out of the Artic in the Winter. Meteorologists have been measuring these occurances for over 140+ years here. It is in the last 10 years, that successively milder and milder Cold Air Masses, corresponding to the melting Artic Ice masses has been measured. Of course, this directly affects the region that I am in, and as I said, in the last 6 years, this has been noticeable changes (meaning it is not just a few degrees that only measurable is by instruments, but much higher temperatures over a longer period of time that is measurable without instruments).
Yesterday I saw an indepth documentary on the Antarctis. It would seem that there have been previous times when the ice in the Antarctis was totally melted. Scientists are currently researching and investigating as to what could be the cause of these warming periods.
Third, this is not just "freak cold snaps and freak warm periods; drought and flood; storm and serenity. Across the globe. Throughout recorded history."
This is a measured change OVER TIME. The weather that we are now getting for winter is expected to be similar now every year! This is a big change from how the weather here used to be.
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
As I'm sure we all know the weather is chaotic by nature. Climate change on the other hand is a real and present threat to all living things. I have been a member of the UK Phenology Network for a while now and there are thousands of detailed records of the chaotic behaviour of the weather. I used to think phenology was a typically English pastime but I see now there are societies all over the world.
There is rather a good artical on the site about climate change here
The ecosystems we are affecting with pollution are under such pressure that there will come a time when they cannot repair themselves.
Dammit got to go the library system I'm on has just given the 2 minute warningh I'll try t get backj later
Tao
Forgive me for not knowing what part of germany you are in.
As for "nowhere near"......that's a very relative description
Keep in mind that *you* brought up the correlation of Mas's reports and your situation...not me
quote:Third, this is not just "freak cold snaps and freak warm periods; drought and flood; storm and serenity. Across the globe. Throughout recorded history." This is a measured change OVER TIME.
Even 10 years is a very small time frame for this type of thing, and I would certainly be interested in seeinig the findings of these scientitsts, and hearing what their conclusions are - what change has been measured, over what period of time?
And how does this correlate to the global averages? That's a huge part of this...
quote:The weather that we are now getting for winter is expected to be similar now every year!
This is yet to be seen...
quote:
This is a big change from how the weather here used to be.
And such "big" changes have cycled over and over and over...throughout history, around the world.
Just for the record.
Now - to get back to my point(s).
Please remember that my responses were to what Mas posted. And I will stand by them - I have yet to see anything that contradicts them. You continue to drag outside information that is well outside the scope of what mas posted, and what I repsonded to.
Global warming is referring to an increase of fractions of degrees over many decades. In fact, the best scientific evidence says that the Earth has warmed less than 0.6 degree Celsius as an annual average over the last century (certainly not enough to cause the phenomena?s that some of you are observing - it's actually colder than usual here in Calgary). One important thing to keep in mind, the Earth is warming naturally as well, and the natural rate of warming is greater than that which is caused by human activity. Global warming is a serious issue, but it's not what is causing the warming you can see. In your entire lifetime the temperature will not change enough based on human activity for you to notice.
If we were today, to stop emitting all pollutants that humans emit. In fact, if we were to take humans and all their creations away from the picture, and just allow the planet to run its course naturally, the planet would still be warming up. The poles would still melt, the coasts would still end up under water. The natural rate of release for carbon dioxide from vegetation, the oceans, and other natural sources is greater than the rate at which the planet can naturally trap it... the effect of CO2 in warming is going to happen regardless of what humans do.
This is not what scientists are trying to stop when they warn of the dangers of global warming, the Earth has existed like this for billions of years. What scientists warn about, is that the slight (re: slight) changes we're causing in temperature variation will negatively affect the natural processes that take place (i.e. the Earth wont start its next cooling period at the right time, or we'll kill off some species necessary for certain ecosystems to live as they do now). Plus we could further damage the ozone layer, making the sun more harmful to us. Finally, it isn't certain what affects an atmosphere full of pollution will have on us, although I?m sure most of us would rather not find out.
Global Warming = Bad.
Current high temperatures observed in various places around the Earth = not Global Warming.
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-13-2007 16:53
quote:Keep in mind that *you* brought up the correlation of Mas's reports and your situation...not me
I brought up that such conditions are happening in Europe all over, not just in one isolated area. But I never said that what Mas is experiencing is exactly what we here in Northern Germany are experiencing - we do not normally get that much snow. I also do not know what the recorded conditions over time look like there where he is. I do know what they are like here in Northern Germany, and they all indicate that the weather is indeed growing warmer over the last 10 years, the first changes going back further. Furthermore, there have been rather intense studies and documentaries on the relation to the Global Warming in the Artic melting the ice there and the warming temperatures here in Northern Germany. As I said, they are in German. I will see if I can get them in English.
Second, I would like to give you the data...do you understand German? Perhaps I might find it translated to english somewhere...I will look. I certainly am not going to go through the trouble of translating it all soley for you.
In the meantime, I would like to see the data supporting that the weather changes over time here in Europe are NOT due to Global Warning, please (for the second time).
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
quote:In the meantime, I would like to see the data supporting that the weather changes over time here in Europe are NOT due to Global Warning, please (for the second time).
i would like to see them as well i am ready to change my point of view (I really would like to do so to be honest, but i just cant...) but i need something that proves your sayings.
Yes, the old religion argument... here are my beliefs, prove me wrong!
It's very difficult to prove a negative, all we can go by are the prevailing scientific theories.
Let's see your evidence (using data, not theories) that the increase in temperature is not caused by a giant monkey 800 miles down playing with giant matches.
The current accepted theory in geophysics (or at least as I've been taught, in my senior level geophysics class) is that the Earth goes through periods of warming and cooling, completely unrelated to human activity. We happen to be in a period of warming, which will continue for quite a long while (much longer than the recorded history of human activity has been thus far). Is there physical data to confirm this theory? No, not really... there weren?t people around millions of years ago to start the record, and during the last ice age any humans would have almost certainly lacked the technology necessary to record the kind of data that would be useful to us now. However, a lack of data isn't a lack of evidence. We've observed enough deformation in coastal rock bodies to suggest that the glaciers have expanded and contracted numerous times throughout history. I don't know what kind of data you want on this. Scientists use samples of deep-sea sediments, and the makeup of coastal rock bodies to form their theories. Go ahead and wikipedia "ice ages" or something if you want more in depth evidence or "data".
More to the point, this isn't what you're seeing either! Even the natural increase in temperature is measured in changes over thousands of years - it's not significant enough for you to notice. Even the estimates that don't adjust for natural rate of warming still point to increases of approximately 0.2 degree per decade. 100 years for a 2-degree change. Over your entire lifetime the Earth wont warm enough to melt the snow in your yard.
There's no evidence to credit what your seeing to something other than global warming, not because what your seeing is global warming, but because what your seeing isn't anything - just random fluctuations in temperature.
Want me to mail you some snow? We have lots here, and like I said, it's much colder outside than usual.
I don't deny global warming. In fact, I firmly believe that it's both true, and incredibly serious. But if we start attributing every fluctuation in temperature to global warming, all we'll be doing is confusing a serious issue. Understanding what it is, and why it's dangerous is an important first step. If we start assuming that every change in temperature is global warming, we wont even know what we're battling against. The next time you have a cold winter people will forget all about it, and assume the scientists were wrong (we can already see this happening in some cases). It's important to understand that the affects on various ecosystems, on species, and on vegetation will be serious, and noticeable long before we can notice any major changes in global temperature.
In the meantime, I would like to see the data supporting that the weather changes over time here in Europe are NOT due to Global Warning, please (for the second time).
First of all - that is *not* the topic that started this. The initial post was basicall "we had the snowiest winter last year, and now it's already the warmest that's crazy! that's global warming, and fast"
Although you have altered your argument progressively, your initial reaction to my post was "i must 2nd mas". You have reached a point of straw man argument here essentially.
The original sentiment was wrong, plain and simple. The data that Mas posted in an attempt to support his idea only proves that his idea was incorrect.
If we're going to argue the specifics of your particular cliamte situation, then we *will* need to see data to tell us what that situation is, and how it corresponds to global averages and the like. That brings us down a far different road than where we started, however.
Second of all - that is not the 2ndtime you've asked for that, as "changes over time" was not the topic when you first asked for data.
I will second Dan here as well, WS - you are dangerously close to arguing this from the 'religious' approach, and I know you understand the implications of that...
FWIW.
Wes - and all this time, I thought pirates *liked* the warmer climates....
DL-44: you are right, my graph shows that fluctuations have always existed. my graph shows ups and downs. all I am saying is, that the fluctuations which we experience nowadays are extremer than they were before. just saw that on TV as well (but TV isnt always a reliable source of course). and if THIS is because of global warming is a matter of dispute.
however...the thread slowly runs into a different direction, yes. nothing new in the Philosophy and other Silliness forum
edit: and yes, i do realize that i havent made my thoughts clear enough in my first post. sorry for that!
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-15-2007 11:01
Actually, I am presenting MY case (situation here in Europe) sparked by what Mas posted. To be honest, it is not my case, but that of German Scientists (and most probably, European Scientists).
Sufficient to say, I see no data to the contrary (well, other than Mr. Bush's "taint no global warming!").
And no DL, Dan, I am nowhere NEAR the religious arguments (you have both suggested that it is not due to Global Warming - I am asking for your evidence of this), and it is not a Strawman Argument, either. Or perhaps your replies were tailored ONLY to Mas' post?
What I am pointing out is, although Mas has used a rather isolated event, that perhaps there is more truth to his assumption then first meets the eye.
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-16-2007 11:39
quote:Sun, ice and snow
Polar regions significantly influence the global climate : Ice surfaces have a high ability to reflect solar radiation, the albedo. Surfaces covered by ice are warming significantly less than uncovered surfaces. If global warming decreases the ice cover, the albedo will sink and thus enhance further warming. Possible future changes in Arctic sea-ice cover and thickness, and corresponding changes in the ice-snow-albedo-feedback, represent one of the major uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature change.
Global consequences of Arctic climate processes
Results of the modelling demonstrate that a change in the polar energy sink region can exert a strong influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is explained by fluctuations between the Iceland low pressure system in the northern, and the Azores high pressure area in the southern North Atlantic. A positive and a negative phase is distinguished. A stronger wets-east-current in the North Atlantic accompanies the fluctuations in air pressure in the positive phase. Thus more warm and humid air reaches northern and middle Europe.
That may well be true, DL, but do you see anything to suggest that Mas's lack of snow ISN'T a result of global warming? Yeah. Take that.
Also, if you DO see anything to suggest that Mas's lack of snow ISN'T a result of global warming, please do not tell me. I've constructed a very flimsy house, and you don't want me to be homeless.
That may well be true, DL, but do you see anything to suggest that Mas's lack of snow ISN'T a result of global warming? Yeah. Take that.
Yeah - all that stuff I said before
WS - it may very well support what you see happening around you, although it is quite vague.
It still has nothing whatsoever to do with a a sudden change from "the most snowiest" to the "most snowless" winter from one year to the next, and such a change is not data that can be used in reference to global warming.
FWIW, we are also experiencing a very warm and snow-free winter here in New England so far (though that seems about to change starting this week...)
A couple of years ago, we had a particularly cold and nasty winter. Looking back through the history - while we may not have specific data - we do have records in the journals going back to the first colonists, of harsh winters and mild winters.
From: Happy Hunting Grounds... Insane since: Mar 2001
posted 01-16-2007 17:59
I am not debating the very sudden change of winters from one to the next - I am debating that the extremes that they are going to have not been recorded before and the data suggests that the reason is the Warming of the Artic Ice (at least where I am) - and that is attributed to Global Warming. Thus, it would suggest through the Associative Property that the season extremes here are related to Global Warming.
WebShaman | The keenest sorrow (and greatest truth) is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities.
- Sophocles
quote:
I am debating that the extremes that they are going to have not been recorded before
This has been said several times here, but I still haven't seen anything to support it.
A decade worth of preogressive change warrants more attention, but even that is an awful small time frame. But I haven't seen the evidence of that either...
If I missed that info in your links, my apologies. All I found was general information about the effect of arctic wind on European climate.
For us British units people, assuming we start at 0 degrees Celsius and go up .5 degrees Celsius, we go up .9 degrees Fahrenheit. Now you may say, the earth is so massive! One degree is such a big thing when you get to be on a scale so big! But I say the population has increased 3.55 billion (Google work here) and the number of cars has increased from a rather ambiguous digit of 7 to an equally ambiguous digit of 45. (First link on "Number of cars in 1950".)
So to answer the original question, do I care about Global Warming? :P No, not really. There's more pressing matters.
rukuartic@halflght:~/$ whatis life
life: nothing appropriate.
At more or less the same time that EXXON ~cough spit~ announces the largest yearly profits ever in the history of mankind no really. In a smoke free Paris boardroom The IPCC have announced their findings on climate change, which I hope will really make the dumb selfish politicians sit up and take note. Aunty Beeb also has a good page on the subject here
Sorry once again I have to post and run and not get involved in the cut and thrust of the discussion, but such is my fate at the moment =(
There are reports of making this report much more strongly worded than any other to reflect the urgency of the matter. I can only hope that the nicotine withdrawal pangs have started to kick in at the Paris venue and the journalists are getting irate and uppity enough to scream. There has been a ban on smoking in public places in France in case you are wondering what I am going on about
Shine on
I care about it. I think the preposterous and almost religious assertion that humans are to blame for it - further; that we can avoid it by living more frugally - is dangerous and misguided. Instead of making preparations for the inevitable events to come, we're ignoring the opportunity to lessen the catastrophe.
I'd be astounded if our 'green' attitude makes a difference to Earth's climate while Mars keeps getting hotter under remarkably similar circumstances. Perhaps we could advise the Martians on our master plan for averting disaster.
Oh, hang on... there aren't any power stations, 4x4 school-runners, factories, or cattle farms on Mars are there?! I wonder what utterly different and obviously unrelated influences are causing Martian global warming then..?
posted 01-09-2007 23:54
(no joke)
(from wikipedia)
::cell::
i am ready to change my point of view (I really would like to do so to be honest, but i just cant...) but i need something that proves your sayings. 
